The year ended on a sour note when the President allowed political expediency to take over and advanced the presidential poll by two years to January 26, 2010. When one of the chief architects of military victory General Sarath Fonseka challenged the president's bid for a second term in office, the polity and people became polarized. The nation is now divided vertically when unity is the key to reaping the dividends of peace.
The nation is using irreplaceable resources of human endeavor for a political exercise instead of addressing vital national issues that have a strategic bearing on Sri Lanka's future, such as kick-starting the national economy to pay off war debts, upgrading human resources stunted during the war years, redressing historical grievances of minorities and rectifying human rights and humanitarian aberrations.
The President is leading the race in the run-up to the elections. However, General Fonseka, the common opposition candidate, is improving his competitiveness. He has revamped his campaign making a foray into Jaffna peninsula, a no-go area for any army commander without escort for the last 25 years. Apparently Fonseka is determined to improve his trust quotient among Tamils. However, unless the former political ally of the LTTE - The Tamil National Alliance (TNA) - makes up its mind to support him he is unlikely to get large scale Tamil support. With the government in power in a position to indirectly trade favors, the TNA's much delayed decision may not be wholehearted even in the unlikely event of favoring Fonseka.
Compared to the General, President Rajapaksa is better placed to win Tamil votes despite the historical Tamil tilt towards the rival United National Party. Thus it would be reasonable to expect the President to win the mandate for a second term. If that happens we can expect him to become even more assertive in the parliamentary polls. His aim would be to strengthen his coalition numbers in parliament as no single party by itself has a chance to get an absolute majority in the proportional representation system.
The year 2010 will probably also see the deferring of contentious questions like abolition of executive presidency. Even with all good intentions, in the coming year we can expect no dramatic improvement in other hardy perennials - human rights, Tamil autonomy, and enforcement of 13th and 17th amendments in the constitution. At best expect there would probably be cosmetic changes through a patchwork of measures to buy time and space rather than make paradigm changes because politically that would be more convenient.
International affairs Sri Lanka is likely to adopt a more conciliatory profile with nations which matter because it would need their support to prop up its war ravaged economy, handle embarrassing human rights and humanitarian issues coming up internationally, and take maximum advantage of the strategic power play in the Indian Ocean and South Asian regions. Sri Lanka's relations with the U.S. are likely to undergo a facelift with the Obama administration already indicating its mood to ‘forget and forgive' in reshaping its Sri Lanka policy. Of course, Sri Lanka has to thank the increasing footprint of China in the country for change in the U.S. attitudes. Otherwise the U.S. would not have suddenly discovered it should have "an integrated strategy that leverages political, economic and security tools for more effective long-term reforms" in Sri Lanka.
Of course 2010 will be the year of sizeable increase in the Chinese profile beyond its projects in Sri Lanka. We can expect the markets to offer a flood of Chinese goods giving a run for their money to Indian and local brands. Towards the year end probably we will see Chinese tourists coming in large numbers.
Indian response to the Chinese moves could be at its own ponderous pace. The focus would be on developmental activity in the Tamil areas and taking up other projects long in incubation. In 2010 Indian concerns with the Af-Pak region are likely to occupy greater space in its foreign policy preoccupations due to the likely downsizing of the U.S. profile in the region as a prelude to progressive military disengagement there. Despite this, with the Tamil Nadu legislative elections due in another year, the Tamil issue could be brought back to the top of the open agenda from backroom parleys.
The EU despite periodic fulminations about extending the GSP+ tariff concessions may well end up striking a compromise. The EU rarely takes abrupt or precipitate action in handling such situations. Usually it provides enough space for the other nation to evolve a workable solution. Moreover, it has both strategic and commercial interests in the region and cannot exclude itself in the power game.
Britain's Sri Lanka relations had a forgettable year in 2009. They are unlikely to fare any better in 2010 due to Britain's own political compulsions in responding to ethnic Tamil lobbying and human rights pressures outweighing other considerations.
Human Rights issues It is payback time for Sri Lanka's human rights aberrations and alleged war crimes. In 2010 there is likely to be more international pressure on Sri Lanka to show concrete actions to prevent economic and diplomatic stand-off with powerful entities like the EU and the U.S. In view of this, Sri Lanka could move away from its hard position and take face saving measures so that it presents a reasonable image to a friendlier U.S. However, if past experience is any guide, Sri Lanka is likely to fall short of translating words into action. Usually it works out a slew of half-way measures to ease international pressure and to buy time. Though executive powers give adequate freedom to the president to do so, he is unlikely to make a radical departure from past practice for want of political incentives to do so.
Of course, a strong peoples' movement could change this. There are no signs of such a movement in the near future. It is extremely doubtful whether the opposition parties with their own tainted record would be inclined to do so.
Allegations of war crimes are much more serious in the international eye. But politically it is going to be difficult for the President - regardless who is in the chair - to seriously investigate allegations of war crimes and take them to a logical conclusion. So this issue is likely to be a major challenge for the new president. China is likely to be the gainer if the West confronts Sri Lanka on this issue. China has a history of taking advantage of such confrontations. Usually it uses them as opportunities for strengthening its relations by preventing concerted international action. Myanmar and Sudan are two shining examples of this strategy. Moreover, the international process of handling war crimes is bureaucratic and time-consuming. So the Western powers are likely to use the time delay and economic pressures, rather than direct confrontation, as tools to try and bring Sri Lanka on line.
TrackBack URI for this entry
Subscribe to this comment's feed