Pakistan has been a constant agent in the War against Terror since Musharraf's regime. Drone attacks on Pakistan started in those very times but increased in volume and frequency when a democratic government replaced the Musharraf rule. Baitullah Mehsud was reportedly staying in his father-in-law's house when he was targeted in a US Predator attack. Mehsud's death still bears a question mark in some minds as no proof was provided to vindicate the claim since the Pakistan Government took its time to confirm the incident. After International media reports confirmed from Taliban themselves, Pakistan government finally reported the incident to be true.
Being a reputed Afghan jihadi warrior and leader of the tribe, Mehsud, along with other tribes had control over the Federally Administered Tribal Area of Pakistan since 2003. On his record, killing of Pakistani soldiers and tribesmen rate the highest. 1,200 Pakistani soldiers and 6,000 tribesmen were killed by the militant group from 2003 to 2008. Along with these killings, he was also responsible for bomb blasts and suicide bomb attacks in Karachi, Lahore, Rawalpindi and other major cities of Pakistan. In FATA, his troops destroyed educational systems - mostly ones for girls.
All activities apart, Mehsud became the cause of the biggest migration that Pakistan witnessed after 1947. According to UNHCR more than 10 million people were displaced in wake of military operations in the Taliban held areas of NWFP earlier this year. People from Swat, Bunir and Dir regions moved towards other cities in the province and across the country leaving their homes and trade behind. Both the people and the government of Pakistan endured hardships and were tested of their capabilities for the survival of the internally displaced. It has been a trauma for the whole nation and if we thought that the turmoil was over with Mehsud's death; we may be in for a shock.
After Baitullah's death, the question arose as to who will be the new leader of the group. His death took a dramatic turn for TTP. It was left to decide amongst themselves the most suitable candidate for the position and often was faced with disarray in the ranks.
Militant commander of TTP Faqir Mohammad who had earlier said that Baitullah was not dead and was just injured claimed to be Mehsud's successor. The confusion was exacerbated when Faqir changed statements and declared Hakimullah Mehsud to be the new TTP chief. After much internal competition for the leadership Hakimullah Mehsud was appointed unanimously as the new leader of the Tehrik-e-Taliban by a 42-member shura. The announcement of the leadership was followed by the confirmation of Baitullah's death by Hakimullah and the Pakistani Government to the local and international media.
Now that the leadership has passed hands, is it that the threat it posed to Pakistan in the past has lessened if not completely ended or is it just a new beginning? Hakimullah, according to media reports is a young and ruthless commander and “can prove to be a bigger threat to Pakistan and to foreign troops” across the border in Afghanistan.
He has been hailed as the nom de guerre of Zulfiqar Mehsud, the Amir of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan. He was deputy to Commander Baitullah Mehsud and was one of the leaders of the militant group Fedayeen al-Islam prior to the elder Mehsud's death. He had been the TTP's commander in the Khyber, Kurram and Orakzai agencies of Pakistan, served as a driver and was very close to Baitullah. The man has already taken responsibility for attacking a police training centre at Manawa, Lahore and an assault on a military check post in Islamabad this year.
As far as the reports on Hakimullah's profile go, it will be naïve to deem that the militant war is over in Pakistan. The TTP does not claim to be Pakistan's enemy directly. It is a militant group which has its own interpretation of jihad and exterminates those whom it deems to be working on US policies. Baitullah Mehsud was reported to be a key worker for Al-Qaeda. He held Al-Qaeda and Mullah Omar as his idols. For Al-Qaeda – being a huge threat to US since the beginning of the century and Mullah Omar, a jihadi leader who took innocent Pakistanis to Afghanistan and left them to die – militancy matters more no matter with what they tag it. Therefore, this close association with the “terror group” will give no end to TTP's struggle against terminating followers of US policies. The monster is hurt but not dead and with Hakimullah's accession the war may take another deadly turn.
It is high time for Pakistan government and Army to maintain pressure on TTP. The new leader is strong but new, it will take him time to get the intellectual and political grasp of Baitullah's level no matter how sharp he is. Furthermore, the forces should not forget that he became leader following uncertainty amongst his tribe and while the TTP synergises to previous levels, the Pakistan Army can use the time to execute a strong defensive strategy.
Some sections of the Pakistani government still believe peace talks can do the trick for the government. Reviewing the whole scenario, it will be an imprudent step, if taken without maintaining the military forces in the region. For Pakistan, the North-West is still the belly-of-the-beast and it will be vital to hold its armed forces in the region to keep pushing the culprit out. It is also a golden opportunity for the military forces to take control of the law and order situation in Swat, Bunir and Dir. It will be risky but worth going for, though. The armed forces must not take things softly as once TTP is back on its feet, there will be a chaos.
In the meantime, the on-going war against US and its allies is less likely to be affected as such. Till Hakim's initiation, the militancy in Pakistan region might go weak for a while but globally the network, with its close associations is strong enough to propagate terror. Latest example is that of Taliban attacks in Afghanistan, in the pre and post election days.
Baitullah Mehsud's death may result in a shock for the tribesmen but with Hakim's placement, it is good news for them and points towards no ending of terror in the region, particularly in Pakistan. If anything, it conveys the message, strong and direct that the war is not yet over.
Analysts believe that if the Government of Pakistan continues to call the TTP on negotiating tables for peace talks while not back lashing on the presence of its military forces in the region, peace can be restored. It is high time for the government to maintain an upper hand with the help of Pakistan Army and not be fooled by mere promises like the past. Mehsud's death is no guarantee that the threat the militant group posed to the writ of the Government of Pakistan and the integrity of its people has subsided. Baitullah was one big fish that died but there is another bigger one lurking in the tribal areas of Pakistan.
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