As recent events across the Line of Control in Kashmir have shown, a second violent uprising in Jammu and Kashmir is now well on the cards and unless India does not act fast, temperatures in the region may heat up again.
In a recent move, India has stopped the flow of River Chenab waters into Pakistan, which has further aggravated the water availability problem in the country, adversely affecting the Kharif crop, especially cotton and sugarcane and the upcoming wheat crop.
In a ground-breaking development, India has just signed a deal with the USA that will facilitate nuclear cooperation between the two countries. The deal lifts a three-decade U.S. moratorium on nuclear trade with India. While on the face of it, the agreement will facilitate U.S. assistance to India's civilian nuclear energy program and expand U.S.-India cooperation in energy and satellite technology, critics say it will fundamentally reverse half a century of U.S. nonproliferation efforts, undermining attempts to prevent states like Iran and North Korea from acquiring nuclear weapons. It will also potentially contribute to a nuclear arms race in Asia, the other major participant in the race being no other than Pakistan.
Already billed as one of the world’s biggest arms buyers, India seems to be keen to venture out again on a major shopping spree. It will be spending $30 billion over the next four years to modernize its largely Soviet-era arms. With the nuclear deal with the United States in its pocket, it is moving closer to the West and this certainly poses a challenge to traditional ally and supplier Russia which appears to be enormously perturbed by the fact that European and US firms are bidding quite enthusiastically for India’s $10 billion deal to buy 126 fighter jets. This will be one of the biggest arms contracts in the world.
In fact, Russia is urging India to speed up pending projects, including delivery of Sukhoi-30MKI fighters, battle tanks, stealth frigates and missile destroyers. India has already agreed to buy 347 T-90 battle tanks from Russia and will build 1,000 more tanks locally with Russian assistance.
India and Russia have also agreed to speed up delivery of an aircraft carrier by 2012. In 2004, the two countries had signed a $1.6 billion deal to bring the carrier Admiral Gorshkov to India by 2008. India may now have to pay an extra $1.2 billion for the ship’s refitting costs.
Some analysts feel Russia is delaying some arms deliveries to India because it is uneasy about India’s growing ties with the United States and France to buy more weapons though India claims that Russia is still a tried and tested friend.
India’s move to buy 126 fighter jets for $12 billion is in its final stages with evaluations of six shortlisted aircraft set to begin next year, according to Air Chief Marshal Fali Major.
US-based Boeing and Lockheed Martin, Russian MiG, Sweden’s Saab and French Dassault are vying for the world’s richest fighter jet deal in 15 years.
US defence contractors have been lobbying hard to secure deals with India and industry sources say Lockheed Martin’s F-16 and Boeing’s Super Hornet have emerged as frontrunners in the jet fighter evaluation process.
The IAF will also buy six Hercules transport planes from Lockheed Martin for $968 million and will begin final talks for six air-to-air refuelling planes with either Airbus or the Russians.
The first of two Israeli Phalcon Airborne Warning and Control System radar systems of $1.1 billion would reach India in January, according to reports. The Indian Air Chief has also said that his country had begun upgrading its military installations and airbases on the border with China to counter any possible threat from its giant Asian neighbour.
“By 2009 we would have our Sukhoi-30 multi-role fighter jets deployed on the eastern sector,” Major said as other officials said military engineers were working at high speed to fortify the Sino-Indian border.
What signals do these developments give to India’s neighbours, particularly Pakistan and China? They are certainly caught between India’s sweet words and discomforting deeds.
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